PSE Chart of the Week: ALI – is Ayala Land ALI-ve again? - Marvin Germo

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PSE Chart of the Week: ALI – is Ayala Land ALI-ve again?

By: Marvin Germo | February 3, 2014

Ayala Land!  One of the largest companies in the Philippines in terms of Market Capitalisation was one of the zooming stocks in the first half of 2013.  From a high of 35 Pesos per share last May 2013, ALI dropped to a low of  23.75 Pesos per share last December 2013.

Circuit Makati

From it pits, it started to form a short uptrend and has gained traction with a high of 27.55 Pesos per share as of January 24, 2014.

The question is, where is ALI now and is it ALI-ve again?

ALI February 3 2014

Looking at the chart above here are some observations.

1.  ALI tried to get out of the 9 month downtrend that start last May 2013 but failed to do so.  For ALI to be clear and out of the woods it would be good if it breaks away from that price range.

2.  I believe it should break away from 27.5 Pesos per share for it escape the downtrend and also get out from the selling pressure at that price.

3.  If the 27.5 Peso per share price range gets broken, I believe ALI would have the ability to go as high as 29 Pesos per share.  If it goes beyond 29 pesos per share, ALI now turns from bearish to bullish and may go as high as 31.5-33 Pesos per share.  However if it fails to do so, it may fallback and retrace from 25.6 – 27.30 Pesos per share.

4.  If the stock fails to go up and break 27.5 Pesos per share, ALI might fall to a range of 23.8- 25.6 Pesos per share.

The Plan

If you are a trader you may use points 1-4  as reference for your trades.

If you are an investor, your goal is to accumulate as much as you can while the stock is bearish.  The more bearish the stock the cheaper you get to buy and the bigger your position becomes.  When it turns bullish, stop buying and let your profits run.

I hope this article continues gives you a greater conviction on how you trade and invest the PSE.  I want to see more Filipinos learn to earn in the stock market.


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