“Sir Marvin, what’s all this hype about Jollibee dropping. Can you please give me a perspective of JFC via technical analysis? Now that I am in Canada, I just mainly rely on what I see over the web. I have been following your tweets, TV and radio guestings as much as I can to at least give me a grasp on what’s going on in the Philippines. You are one of the people I follow and listen when it comes to stocks. Thank you so much for taking the time reading this, I hope to hear from you soon.”
Has the Chicken Joy Fallen? After a year of aggressively going up, Jollibee (JFC) is now testing the waters at the 200 day support. To put it into perspective JFC was barely 100 Pesos per share roughly a year ago.
I would not be surprised if there would be a certain percentage of people taking profits. When people take profits, prices go down, this is normal and part of the game. The question is, will you be in the market while it is going down? Or will you be out of it and will just come back later? There is no right or wrong but rather what is right based on your analysis not what your friend or barber would tell you.
From it’s peak in November 2013, Jollibee (JFC) has seen downward selling pressure. The lower end of this short term down trend is at 150 Pesos per share. There may be a continued downward movement of JFC if no buying is seen.
If we zoom out further, we could see that JFC is resting on the 200 day moving average support. This is the first time it has ever hit this point since January 2013. The thing is if we do not see JFC bounce from this support range we may see JFC fall further.
Here are the numbers to watch out for:
Long Term Support Break or Bounce – 157 Peso per share.
1. If it goes below that, we may see prices drop further and we see the downtrend solidify.
2. If it bounces JFC may consolidate or try to go as high as 167 – 172 Peso price per share range.
Mid Term Down Trend Reversal – 174 Peso per share.
1. Price range to hit to escape the current downtrend.
Hope this data helps you decide further! Just a disclaimer though, all of this are all price action and charts. What I presented here has nothing to do with the fundamentals and valuations of JFC. Nothing has changed with JFC’s expansion. They are still fundamentally sound, pumped and primed for growth. Technical Analysis is just a good way to be in the loop on where the market sentiment is going as to help you know where things are in the grand scheme of things.
I want your 2014 to be profitable. I want you to earn by you learning how to earn by yourself. It can be done and you can do it! Hope both the article and charts help you towards financial freedom!
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