Stock Smarts Picks of the week : December 2 – 6, 2013 - Marvin Germo

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Stock Smarts Picks of the week : December 2 – 6, 2013

By: Marvin Germo | December 3, 2013

The 5 day bounce rally of the PSEi ended today.  One good thing to note though is that this brought us out of the short term downtrend.  We may see the market consolidate if the PSEI would hold at 6,146.  If not we could see ourselves right back at the downtrend.

Nothing still has changed sentiment wise, our market is still bearish with the breakout point at 6,568.

Congratulations to First Metro for bringing in the very first ETF in our country!  This is again another historical week for us!


We open this week with 10 Bullish Stocks.  For the first time in 22 weeks, JFC is out of our TIER 1 stocks.

*all charts by COLFinancial

The Bullish Zone – 10 Stocks

Tier / Rank 1 – Strong stocks in an uptrend.  Stocks that have been moving from good to great.  SCC has defied the odds this week!

SCC [2 weeks]  – The stock is still bullish, however there we may experience it drop as it failed to break the 304 resistance level.  The stock is also oversold now.

DMC [2 weeks] – Similar to SCC, DMC is bullish for the long term, but it experienced some selling at the 56 peso level.  Should it fall and bounce back from the support it would be good because you get to buy it cheaper.

AEV [new entry] – AEV continues to impress!  It did not just break from bearish to bullish but it solidified its uptrend.  Watchout for some selling pressure at 57.

Tier / Rank 2 –  Stocks that are bullish for the long term but are sideways for the short term and is trying to bounce back from the support.  To earn money in this category you may trade the respective ranges.

URC [3 weeks] –  URC remains to be in a holding pattern having a buying range of 117 and a good trading sell at 133.  It looks more attractive now as it is hovering at the long term support range.  The stock remains bullish over the long term.

GLO [new entry] – The stock bounced from the support and continues to validate the sideways movement of the stock.  The trading range is 1,647 – 1,807.

AGI [new entry] – Stocks trading range: 24.5 – 28.

Tier / Rank 3 –  Stocks that are moving sideways over the short to mid term while the long term sentiment is still bullish.  The stocks under this category have just hit the resistance and are currently experiencing downward selling pressure.

JFC [new entry] – Down from almost 21 weeks in tier 1.  JFS is still bullish for the long term but now sideways for the short term.  Trading range is 170 – 185

ICT [new entry] – The stock is bullish for the long term but sideways for the short term.  ICT just bounced form the support of 97.5.  The trading range for this stock is 97.5 – 107.5.  As it nears the 107 and falls it may not be good to buy and pickup the stock.

Tier / Rank 4 –  Stocks under this category are a good buy as long as they hold on to the long term support.

PGOLD [3 weeks] –  The stock seems to be holding and bouncing from the strong support.  If we see it go beyond 43.55 a new uptrend may already be formed.  If not, we may just see the stock go sideways.

RFM [2 weeks] –Similar to PGOLD looks like this stock is trying to bounce form the support.  For us to see an uptrend develop the stock should go beyond the 5.52 price range.

PCOR [new entry] – Finally!!!  After 8 weeks trying to breakout, PCOR finally broke out two days ago!  Now the stock is bullish!  The stock may go sideways for a bit, but you can expect this stock to bounce off the support.  Selling ranges are 14.85 and 16.26.


 The Bearish Zone.   – 48 Stocks

Tier / Rank 5 –  Bearish stocks that are close to the long term resistance area.  If they breakout they now turn bullish.  Stocks in this category are worth watching as we may see a good and strong breakout if they turn bullish.  If they fall from the short/mid term support the stocks in this category should be avoided.  –

UBP [8 weeks] – breakout at 129. No significant changes in this stock.
GTCAP [2 weeks] – Bearish and on a short term downtrend
MEG [2 weeks]  –  long term resistance is at 3.60.
JGS [2 weeks] – long term resistance at 41.93
RLC [2 weeks] – long term resistance at 22.79
BEL [2 weeks] – long term resistance at 5.50
LR [2 weeks] – long term resistance at 6.55
AC [2 weeks] – long term resistance at 596
PSE [new entry]  –  long term resistance at 414.50

Tier / Rank 6 – Stocks that are quite far from crossing over from bearish to bullish.

SM [4 weeks] – Long term resistance is at 839.
SMPH [4 weeks]  – Long term resistance is at 18
DMPL [4 weeks] –  Long term resistance is at 28
AP [6 weeks] – Long term resistance is at  35
BDO [2 weeks]
ALI [2 weeks]

Tier / Rank 7 – Most bearish of the Bears.  If tier 1 were the cream of the crop in this section you would see stocks who have been bearish for a very long time already.  I would think twice first before taking a crack at the stocks here.  In technical analysis the trend remains intact until proven otherwise.  Majority of the stocks here have been bearish for more than 4 months already –

ABS,  EW, FGEN, FPH, GERI, GMA7, LC, LCB, LPZ,  MA, MWC, PIP.  PX, SLI, CEB, EEI, MWIDE, BLOOM [6 weeks], MPI [6 weeks], SMC [4 weeks], EDC [3 weeks], FLI [3 weeks], MER [new entry], TEL [2 weeks], MBT [2 weeks], PNB [2 weeks], BPI [2 weeks], SECB [2 weeks], COSCO [new entry], DNL [new entry]

*The Bullish Zone.  Stocks that are still above long term support lines in spite of the market going down in general.  Majority of the stocks in the bullish zone are all fundamentally sound and also undervalued when compared to it’s fair value.   If you would want to do selective trading or buying you may consider the stocks in this broad category.  In spite of the market going down they have remained bullish and have bounced back from adversity.  Like what I always say in our talks we buy up trends and we avoid down trends.  And when we find undervalued stocks on an uptrend, it already gives a clue on which stocks are screaming buys.

*The Bearish Zone.Stocks in this category have fallen from the long term support.  Expect more investors wanting to sell shares than buy.  It would be better wait until they have moved from bullish to bearish for a better sense of where the direction of the market is going.  Take note, a lot of the stocks in this category have good fundamentals and are way below their fair value.  Without looking at market sentiment and if you are a long term investor the stocks below would be really good to pickup.  But what the tiers below represent are more of in a technical and market sentiment outlook and at this period of time we are seeing more sellers in the market than buyers.

*All Charts Powered by Col Financial


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