Stocks and the SONA - Marvin Germo

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SONA 2015

Stocks and the SONA

By: Marvin Germo | July 29, 2015

PNOY’s SONA just finished a couple days ago and it left mixed reactions across our kababayans both here and abroad.  Some felt that his accomplishments were subpar however some thought that they were good enough factoring what is happening in our economy today.

This just got me curious on how the market’s reacted each time PNOY gave a state of the nation address.  So as geeky as it may sound I tried to look at the past 5 SONA’s of President Aquino and where did the market go a month after.  Just a disclaimer, past performance is not indicative of future performance.  This is just something I did out of curiosity and what you will find out is that the market really is a product of buyers and sellers and what the prevailing trend is will ultimately determine how far it will go.

If you would like to know where the market is, you may click this link as I gave an update yesterday, this is where I believe our current market is and what it must take to go back up.  Until that happens we will have to wait and find evidence that our market is truly reversing and we just take it as it is that the market is still bearish.

So here’s what I found out from the past SONAs:

1.  The PSEI broke out and moved up higher in alternating years 2010, 2012, and 2014.  While it droped and brokedown into a downtrend both in 2011 and 2013.  Alternating years.  Does this mean we might end the one month duration down this year?

2.  The one month trend of the PSEI for 2010 – 2012 was sideways.  While both 2013 and 2015 were bearish and only 2014 had a 1 month uptrend during the SONA period.

3.  The market was up 3 times in the past 5 years, one month after the SONA while it was down twice during the 5 year duration.

4.  The highest one month gain in the past SONA’s was in 2010 at 5.4%, it was also the same year Aquino won the presidency. While the biggest loss of the market was at 2013 where most of Asia was down and battered due to the sell of in the merging markets.

I’ll try to dig in further over the next few days.  For your reference here are the charts on those years.  Stocks is just fun and just amazing to watch!  I hope you guys are having a great week so far!

SONA July 26, 2010 
PSEI: 3,416
One Month After: 3,596
PSEI:  Up 5.4%
One Month Trend: Sideways
Key thing to note: After breaking out of the sideways market, this strated an upward push of the PSEI.

PSEI SONA July 2010

SONA July 25, 2011 
PSEI: 4,480
One Month After: 4,342
PSEI:  Down 3.1%
One Month Trend: Sideways


SONA July 23, 2012 
PSEI: 5,139
One Month After: 5,202
PSEI:  Up 1.1%
One Month Trend: Sideways
Key thing to note: Similar to 2010, after breaking out the market moved as high as 40% in a span of 7 months.


SONA July 22, 2013 
PSEI: 6,627
One Month After: 6,136
PSEI:  down 6.9%
One Month Trend: Downtrend
Key thing to note: This what at the heels of the massive selldown that occured the month prior where foreign funds started selling and taking out money away from the Philippines.

PSEI Sona 2013

SONA July 28, 2014 
PSEI: 6,850
One Month After: 6,136
PSEI:  Up 2.7%
One Month Trend: Uptrend
Key thing to note: Similar to both 2010 and 2012, this sparked under rally up of the market as the PSEI moved up 19% upto the current peak of the PSEI at April 2015.

PSEI Sona 2014

SONA July 27, 2015 
PSEI: 7,547
One Month After: ?
PSEI:  Currently Down  2%
One Month Trend: Bearish

PSEI Sona 2015


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*Chart from ChartNexus